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As I have mentioned a time or two, "early warning" or mean reversion work tends to be more art than science. The main problem is that strong trends will reach an "extreme" overbought/sold reading and then stay there for some time. As such, it is important to identify if the current market is in what I call a trending mode. To be sure, the bulls trended higher from late June through the start of September. However, the rather violent pullback that ensued forced my regime indicators back to a "mean reverting" (or non-trending)