XLE - Morgan Stanley lifts oil price forecast as Russian and Iranian outlooks deteriorate

Morgan Stanley lifted its oil price forecast Friday, as the bank sees additional Russian supply impacts from May onward, and a coin-flip chance the Iran deal falls through (NYSEARCA:USO). The bank cut its oil demand growth forecast, though indicated that "as the year unfolds, we expect refinery runs to increase, tightening the crude market in the process." The bank's Brent (CO1:COM) price forecast for Q3 2022 was lifted from $120 to $130, Q4 2022 was lifted from $110 to $120 and 2023 was lifted from $100 to $105. Morgan Stanley cited Interfax and Bloomberg reports that suggest oil production in Russia has already fallen by 1mb/d in April. Noting that the decline has not yet shown up in seaborn tanker exports, as Russian refinery runs have fallen more rapidly than production declines, allowing for sustained exports of crude. Given the rapid fall in production, Morgan Stanley now sees Russian volumes

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Morgan Stanley lifts oil price forecast, as Russian and Iranian outlooks deteriorate