MOS - Mosaic CF Industries see tight global fertilizer markets persisting

Fertilizer makers Mosaic ( NYSE: MOS ) and CF industries ( NYSE: CF ) fall sharply in the post-market Monday, -3.2% and -2.5% , respectively, after both missed estimates for Q2 adjusted earnings and revenues.

Mosaic ( MOS ) reported Q2 net earnings more than doubled to $1.04B, or $2.85/share, from $437.2M, or $1.14/share, in the year-earlier quarter, while CF Industries ( CF ) said Q2 net income came in at a quarterly record $1.17B, or $5.58/share, compared to $246M, or $1.14/share, a year ago.

Mosaic ( MOS ) also approved a new $2B stock buyback program, which will take effect at the end of the current authorization, which likely will occur during Q3.

Mosaic ( MOS ) said it expects tight grain and oilseed markets will persist through the rest of 2022 and into 2023, as the war in Ukraine, high temperatures in North America and Europe, and developing drought conditions in parts of South America highlight the risk for reduced yields globally, suggesting that global stocks-to-use ratios - already at 20-year lows - will remain under pressure.

CF Industries ( CF ) said it expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance will remain tight for the foreseeable future, underpinned by resilient agricultural-led demand and uncertainty about global supply availability due to high natural gas costs in Europe and Asia, which likely will result in lower ammonia production in those regions.

CF ( CF ) said gross ammonia production for H1 and Q2 was 5.1M tons and 2.5M tons, respectively, but the company expects Q3 production will decline because of a high level of planned maintenance activities; CF continues to project FY 2022 gross ammonia output of 9.5M-10M tons.

Mosaic's ( MOS ) stock price return shows a 28% YTD gain and a 71% increase during the past year ; CF Industries' ( CF ) stock price return was 34% YTD and 105% in the past year .

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