MWA - Mueller Water's Upside Rests On Good Government Decisions

• Mueller has managed the downturn reasonably well, and underlying residential construction has remained healthy, but the outlook for new residential land development is cloudier in the short term.
• The U.S. water infrastructure badly needs catch-up spending, and the Biden platform calls for some improvement, but investors have been waiting a long time for real spending here.
• The Technologies business has been an ongoing disappointment for Mueller, and it's fair to ask if the business has the right portfolio and/or go-to-market strategy to succeed.
• Mueller shares could have some upside as a catch-up trade, given lagging performance and decent margins/ROIC/ROA, but a lot of the fundamental story rests on budgetary decisions out of its control.

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