ADP - My Best Dividend Aristocrats For January 2023

Summary

• NOBL gained 7.12% in November, which brings the Fund's return for the year to a loss of 2.14%.
• Thus far this month, through December 23rd, the dividend aristocrat ETF is down 3.47%, bringing its year-to-date return to -5.86%.
• I present 3 strategies that can theoretically beat the dividend aristocrat index in the long term.
• After nearly 17 months, all 3 buy-and-hold portfolios continue to generate alpha over NOBL.

2022 Review

The ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) gained a solid 7.12% in November but seems to have lost the year-end momentum in December. Right after posting its second best month since inception, NOBL posted its 6th best single month return making October and November of 2022 the best 2 month return for the fund. The current month is thus far looking much worse, as the exchange-traded fund ("ETF") is down 3.47% through December 23rd. With only a week of trading left this year it is highly unlikely the Fund has a chance to finish the year in the green. 2018 was the only year NOBL finished with a negative total return, losing 3.29% during the year. As of December 23rd, NOBL has a year-to-date loss of 5.86%, and will likely post its worst calendar year return this year.

Not all of the dividend aristocrats are contributing equally to NOBL's momentum rally; 32 dividend aristocrats are beating NOBL through November, and 29 still have positive returns on the year. That's 8 more than a month ago. Here are the best-performing aristocrats in 2022 (through November):

• Exxon ( XOM ) +89.14%
• Chevron ( CVX ) +61.85%
• Cardinal Health ( CAH ) +59.74%
• Archer-Daniels-Midland ( ADM ) +46.92%
• Genuine Parts Company ( GPC ) +33.34%
• Nucor ( NUE ) +33.02%
• Aflac ( AFL ) +26.33%
• General Dynamics ( GD ) +23.78%
• AbbVie ( ABBV ) +23.71%
• Albemarle ( ALB ) +19.51%
• Consolidated Edison ( ED ) +18.95%
• Grainger ( GWW ) +17.89%
• Atmos Energy ( ATO ) +17.56%
• IBM ( IBM ) +16.99%
• Caterpillar ( CAT ) +16.43%
• Chubb ( CB ) +15.02%
• Sysco ( SYY ) +12.79%
• Coca-Cola ( KO ) +10.62%
• PepsiCo ( PEP ) +8.95%
• Automatic Data Processing ( ADP ) +8.63%
• Amcor PLC ( AMCR ) +6.98%
• Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ ) +6.76%
• Walmart ( WMT ) +6.60%
• Emerson Electric ( EMR ) +5.42%
• Cintas ( CTAS ) +5.29%
• McDonald's ( MCD ) +4.04%
• Air Products and Chemicals ( APD ) +4.01%
• Becton Dickinson (BDX) +2.66%
• Brown Forman ( BF.B ) +1.06%

The S&P 500, as measured by SPY , gained 5.56% in November but is down 6.08% in December thus far (through 12/23). NOBL continues to outpace SPY this year with a year-to-date loss through 12/23 of 5.86% versus a loss of 21.91%. The dividend aristocrat ETF has beaten SPY for each of the last 12 months, and this trend looks to continue in December. The dividend aristocrats are not known to consistently beat the S&P 500 index, in fact, the dividend aristocrat index underperformed the S&P 500 index for 6 out of the last 7 full calendar years.

However, if you look further back in history, the dividend aristocrat index is outperforming the S&P 500 index by about 1.62% per year between 1990 and 2021. A significant portion of this long-term outperformance is attributable to the dot com bubble and the financial crisis as well as the immediate years following each market crash. This pattern was broken with the 2020 market crash, perhaps the much shorter duration of the crash and recovery are the reason. The dot com bubble and the financial crisis both extended for multiple years while the 2020 market crash was fully recovered in a matter of months.

Even though the dividend aristocrats have trailed the S&P for the better part of the last 7 years, long-term investors can rest assured that based on history, over a much longer time period, the dividend aristocrats can hold their own. There are currently 64 companies in the dividend aristocrat index but strong historical returns for the index can be attributed to only a handful of them. As an investor, I am always curious how to identify these drivers of outperformance.

I want to present 3 strategies that theoretically could identify winning aristocrats and lead to better performance than the dividend aristocrat index. These strategies work best with a buy and hold long-term investing approach as will be evidenced by the results. They are based on quantitative models that do not consider qualitative data, therefore it is prudent that further due diligence is performed on all chosen stocks.

The Most Undervalued Strategy

Strategy number 1 is a focus on valuation and more specifically it targets the potentially most undervalued dividend aristocrats. In theory, this is a long-term strategy since it may take some time to fully see the reward of leveraging a valuation approach. My preferred method for valuation is dividend yield theory, mainly for its simplicity. Unlike other valuation methods, dividend yield theory does not require making assumptions aside from assuming that a given stock will revert back to its long-term trailing dividend yield.

This valuation technique works best for mature businesses with long histories of dividend growth, making the dividend aristocrats an ideal pool of companies to value using this technique.

Selecting the 10 most undervalued dividend aristocrats each month and adopting a buy and hold investing approach can lead to long-term outperformance when/if the targeted stocks return to fair valuation. It may take a few months or even years to see if this strategy actually pays off. I predict that it will underperform NOBL for the first few months while we wait for bargain stocks to return to fair value.

The table above shows the monthly and annual returns for the buy-and-hold portfolio of the most undervalued strategy.

The portfolio finished November with a gain of 6.99%, losing to NOBL by 0.13% but beating SPY by 1.43%. Through December 23rd the portfolio has a return of -4.58% and is losing to NOBL but beating SPY. As a result, the portfolio, is giving up some more alpha this month to NOBL but not SPY. On a year-to-date basis, the portfolio is outperforming NOBL by 2.79% and SPY by 18.84%. Since inception this portfolio has generated 5.41% of alpha over NOBL and 20.54% of alpha over SPY.

The portfolio consists of 33 unique present and former dividend aristocrats. I track this portfolio by investing $1,000 each month equally split among the 10 chosen aristocrats for that month. The positions are never trimmed or sold and all dividends are reinvested back into the issuing stock. Here are all of the positions, the current market value, capital invested, total return and allocation as of December 23rd.

Here are the 10 most undervalued dividend aristocrats chosen for the month of January 2023. The table below shows potential undervaluation (column Valuation) for each of the 10 chosen aristocrats. The data is from December 23rd so the current dividend yield may differ slightly from the stated yield.

The Fastest Expected Growth Strategy

Strategy number 2 is a focus on dividend aristocrats that are expected to grow the fastest in the near future. Historically, there has been a correlation between earnings per share growth and share price appreciation. Companies that have grown their earnings faster have also seen higher total returns. One way to gauge how fast earnings for a company will grow is to leverage analyst forecasts. For this strategy, I decided to use a discounted five-year EPS growth forecast combined with a return to fair valuation and the dividend yield to identify the 10 best aristocrats poised for the best total return in the future.

The table above shows the monthly and annual returns for the buy-and-hold portfolio of the fastest expected growth strategy.

The portfolio finished November with a gain of 6.14%, losing to NOBL by 0.98% and beating SPY by 0.58%. Through December 23rd the portfolio is down 6.86%, so far trailing NOBL and SPY. The portfolio has gained some momentum in the stock market rally during the past 2 months but is giving up a larger portion of those gains in December. The portfolio once again falls behind NOBL on the year with a loss of 3.35%, but remains ahead of SPY, by 12.70%. Since inception, this portfolio has generated 1.05% of alpha over NOBL and 16.18% of alpha over SPY.

The portfolio consists of 29 unique present and former dividend aristocrats. I track this portfolio by investing $1,000 each month equally split amongst the 10 chosen aristocrats for that month. The positions are never trimmed or sold and all dividends are reinvested back into the issuing stock. People's United (PBCT) was removed from the portfolio in April, as the company was acquired by M&T Bank ( MTB ); the value of the position was reinvested equally amongst the 10 chosen aristocrats for April. Here are all of the positions, the current market value, capital invested, total return and allocation as of December 23rd.

Here are the 10 dividend aristocrats poised for the best total return right now. The table below shows the expected growth rate (column EPS + Valuation) for each of the 10 chosen aristocrats. The data is from December 23rd so the current dividend yield may differ slightly from the stated yield.

The Blended Strategy

Strategy 3 is a blend of the first two strategies, with a focus on the fastest expected growth but applied only to undervalued aristocrats. A blend of undervaluation and expected growth could narrow down the best aristocrats between the two strategies. The most undervalued aristocrats may not necessarily be poised for the fastest growth. Additionally targeting only undervalued aristocrats can offer a margin of safety in that securities are purchased for fair or better prices.

The table above shows the monthly and annual returns for the buy-and-hold portfolio of the fastest expected growth strategy.

The portfolio gained 6.38% in November, trailing NOBL by 0.74% and beating SPY by 0.82%. Through December 23rd the portfolio is down 4.77% and is again trailing NOBL but beating SPY. Year-to-date the portfolio is down 6.50% which is slightly worse than NOBL, down 5.86%, and better than SPY that is down 21.91%. Since inception, this portfolio has generated alpha of 1.80% over NOBL and 16.93% over SPY.

The portfolio consists of 35 unique present and former dividend aristocrats. I track this portfolio by investing $1,000 each month equally split amongst the 10 chosen aristocrats for that month. The positions are never trimmed or sold and all dividends are reinvested back into the issuing stock. People's United (PBCT) was removed from the portfolio in April as the company was acquired by M&T Bank; the value of the position was reinvested equally amongst the 10 chosen aristocrats for April. Here are all of the positions: the current market value; capital invested; total return; and allocation as of December 23rd.

Here are the 10 dividend aristocrats chosen for the blended strategy for January 2023. The table below shows potential undervaluation (column Valuation) and the expected growth rate (column EPS + Valuation) for each of the 10 chosen aristocrats. The data is from December 23rd, so the current dividend yield may differ slightly from the stated yield.

Performance Review

The 10 chosen aristocrats for the most undervalued strategy are down 6.42% in December and trailing NOBL by 2.95%. The fastest expected growth strategy selections are down 7.52% and trailing NOBL by 4.05%. The blended strategy is down 4.47% this month and trailing NOBL by 1.00%. All strategies are struggling this month. However, the buy-and-hold portfolios are generally performing better. I still believe that a buy-and-hold approach is the optimal investing method for these strategies and performance should be measured over longer periods of time.

The best performing selection from all 3 strategies in December is O, with a gain of 2.52%.

Here is a comparison of the buy-and-hold portfolios and the individual monthly selections for each strategy. As you can see the buy-and-hold portfolios are still performing much better than if we bought and sold the 10 chosen aristocrats each month. A buy-and-hold approach is also a much more tax friendly investing strategy.

Final Thoughts

I personally believe each of the 3 strategies outlined above can theoretically beat the dividend aristocrat index over a long period of time. These strategies are based on simple principles of valuation and expected returns, and they are easy to understand and implement. Investors should keep in mind that selecting individual stocks carries more risk than investing in an index. The simplest and possibly the safest way to invest in the dividend aristocrats is to purchase shares of NOBL. The fund finished 2021 with a fantastic return, is performing much better than the S&P in 2022 and has an annualized rate of return of 10.70% since inception.

The dividend aristocrat data in the images of this article came from my live Google spreadsheet that tracks all of the current dividend aristocrats. Because this data is updated continuously throughout the day, you may notice slightly different data for the same company across the images.

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