VXF - My Current View Of The Market: April 2024 Edition (Technical Analysis)

2024-03-30 03:57:32 ET

Summary

• I use a 10-month EMA and relative strength ratios to determine the allocation of retirement funds among four ETF choices.
• All the ETFs are in bullish alignment.
• I use relative strength charts to help narrow down the ETF that is both in an uptrend and outperforming the others, leading to a 100% allocation to SPY in April.

In this article I outline how I will allocate the money in my retirement fund for the month of April. I will use the 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) and a relative strength ratio to determine where my money will go among four ETF choices: SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) , Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ( VXF ), iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ( EFA ) , and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF ( AGG ) . I have two objectives with this retirement account. The first objective is to make money, and the second objective is to outperform the SP 500 index. I want to achieve these objectives as simply as possible which is why I like to use the 10-month EMA crossover as my strategy. I look to be long the ETFs that are trading above the 10-month EMA and I look to be out of the ETFs that are trading below the 10-month EMA. It’s a simple strategy that allows me to stay in long term uptrends and keeps me out of long term downtrends avoiding massive drawdowns. This strategy is not guaranteed to work every time, but I don’t know of a strategy that does work every time. I use the relative strength ratios to determine which ETFs are the strongest as that’s where I want to allocate my money. Let’s get the current view of the market....

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