SPVM - My S&P 500 Outlook Over Multiple Time Frames: Look Out Below (Technical Analysis)

Summary

• The S&P 500 always offers two things at the same time: the chance to make a positive return, and the risk of loss - sometimes major loss.
• A while back, I created something called the S&P X-Ray, which shows my expected trading ranges over the coming weeks, months and years.
• Currently, it indicates some upside potential (since that potential is ever-present) but downside risk that dwarfs that upside potential.

The S&P 500 X-Ray is one of several big-picture indicators I have created and used in my own investing over the years. It is simply my view, as a 40+ year market technician, of the trading ranges for the S&P 500. Importantly, I don't hyper-focus as some market strategists do on constantly adjusting very short-term views. Frankly, if the S&P 500 were trading at exactly 4,000, and I were to read something today about how "support levels are at 3,992 and then 3,985, I'd tune out.

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