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It is a capital mistake to theorize in advance of the facts. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.
- Sherlock Holmes
I believe I have finally figured out why so many people, and institutional money managers, are arriving at wrong conclusions these days about interest rates, risk assets, and some kind of possible recession. What is happening is that they are using the "Old Paradigm" to reach their conclusions. I don't blame them.
This "Old Paradigm" has existed for thousands of years, where the borrower paid