VGSH - New Questions Emerge On Prospects For A June Rate Cut

2024-04-03 09:20:00 ET

Summary

• Markets are still pricing in moderate odds that easing will start at the end of the second quarter, but the incoming data is providing more support for again pushing the date for a dovish policy pivot further down the road.
• The caveat is that the 2-year yield has been anticipating a rate cut for more than a year, only to be proven wrong month after month.
• In the coming weeks, we can expect some Fed speakers to remain vocal about June cuts, but in the end, the data will be the deciding factor.

Forecasts that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June took another hit after Monday's relatively firm manufacturing survey data for March. Markets are still pricing in moderate odds that easing will start at the end of the second quarter, but the incoming data is providing more support for again pushing the date for a dovish policy pivot further down the road....

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