LNNGY - Nike Faces Challenges Particularly In China

2023-04-29 00:39:54 ET

Summary

• Nike's Q3 earnings report reveals robust performance.
• The company's innovative products, direct-to-consumer strategy, and commitment to purpose-driven actions contribute to its strong position.
• However, Nike faces significant challenges from competition from local Chinese brands and inventory issues.

Nike's ( NKE ) Q3 earnings report showcased the company's robust performance, driven by diversified performance across brands, channels, and geographies. The report revealed insights into Nike's innovative products, direct-to-consumer strategy, and its commitment to purpose-driven actions. However, Nike faces considerable challenges, particularly in the Chinese market, where it is facing increasing competition from local players. Moreover, the company is facing economic uncertainty, inventory management issues, and promotional activities. Investors should exercise caution and carefully assess Nike's ability to overcome these hurdles before making investment decisions. In this article, we will analyze Nike's Q3 earnings, evaluate its strategies, assess its valuation, and discuss the risks and opportunities that the company faces in the athletic apparel market.

What We Learned From Q3

Nike's Q3 earnings demonstrated robust performance, with a 14% revenue growth on a reported basis and an impressive 19% on a currency-neutral basis. This strong performance can be attributed to diversified performance across brands, channels, and geographies. Key takeaways include a 24% increase in digital growth, driven by significant increases in mobile and app traffic, and an 18% growth in the wholesale channel, emphasizing its continued importance in Nike's strategy to access key consumer segments and achieve widespread market distribution.

The Q3 results showcased Nike's ability to achieve positive currency-neutral growth across all four geographies, with North America, EMEA, and APLA reporting double-digit revenue growth. Despite challenges due to China's COVID policies, Greater China still managed to grow by 1%. Nike's 16% YoY inventory growth and enhanced efficiency in managing shifting market dynamics indicate that the company is well on its way to accomplishing its fiscal '23 priorities.

Nike's Consumer Direct Acceleration (CDA) strategy has been a key driver of growth, reinforcing the company's holistic approach to innovation, brand engagement, and marketplace, all underpinned by valuable consumer insights. The company's innovative products, strong brand presence, and direct connections with consumers set Nike apart in a dynamic and competitive market.

The Q3 earnings revealed the introduction of the Invincible 3 in the running category, expansion into trail running with the Pegasus Trail 4, and the strength of its basketball portfolio, which includes products such as the LeBron 20, Sabrina 1, and Tatum 1. The Air Max franchise's double-digit growth in Q3, as well as the introduction of products like the Air Max Pulse and "Design by Japan" Air Max 1 '87, exemplify Nike's ability to create targeted, insights-driven products.

Nike's fiscal '22 Impact Report underlines the company's commitment to purpose-driven actions, with progress made in ESG targets across people, planet, and play. Overall, Nike's Q3 earnings provided valuable insights into the company's strong performance, insights-driven approach to product innovation, and the ongoing implementation of the CDA strategy. These factors position Nike well for continued success and growth in the future, although investors should remain cautious of ongoing margin pressures and the competitive landscape, particularly in the Chinese market.

Business Analysis

Our analysis suggests that while Nike remains a prominent player in the athletic apparel market, it faces considerable challenges, including inflation and slowing economic growth. One key factor underpinning our view of the company is its competitive advantage stemming from its intangible brand asset. Although this advantage has historically allowed Nike to maintain premium pricing and generate economic profits, its sustained effectiveness is not guaranteed.

Nike, as the largest athletic footwear brand in all major categories and markets, has a strong presence in segments like running and basketball with popular shoe styles. Despite facing stiff competition, the company's past performance indicates its potential to maintain market share and pricing. However, this is becoming increasingly difficult as competitors continue to innovate and gain traction in the market.

The company's strategies in recent years have aimed to strengthen its leadership position, focusing on direct-to-consumer relationships and reducing reliance on undifferentiated retailers. Nike's consumer plan, led by the Triple Double strategy, targets doubling innovation, speed, and direct connections with consumers.

Nike's recent performance in China has been inconsistent due to supply chain issues, virus-related restrictions, and political controversy. This raises concerns about the company's ability to maintain and expand its market share in this crucial growth market. With a history of double-digit annual sales growth in six of the past eight years in Greater China, Nike's potential to replicate this success is uncertain, given the current market challenges and increased competition.

Nike's worldwide distribution and significant e-commerce platform, which exceeded $10 billion in fiscal 2022, may provide some benefits as the middle class expands and broadband access increases in China, Latin America, and other developing regions.

Based on our research, we hold a somewhat pessimistic view of Nike's ability to maintain its position as a market leader in the face of significant challenges and competition, particularly in the crucial Chinese market. While the company's innovative strategies, focus on direct-to-consumer connections, and strong brand equity provide some support, it is vital to closely monitor Nike's performance as market dynamics continue to evolve.

Risks: China

In recent times, Chinese sportswear brands like ANTA ( ANPDY ) and Li Ning ( LNNGF ) have been gaining on their foreign rivals, including Nike, as local consumers' preferences shift. Anta has managed to increase its market share at the expense of other big brands, with a combined market share of 14.8% alongside Fila in 2022. In contrast, Nike still leads the sportswear market with a 15.3% share of retail value in 2022.

One of the key factors contributing to this shift is the growing perception among Chinese consumers that domestic brands offer better value for money and improved product quality compared to their Western counterparts. This is further exacerbated by the lingering 2021 boycotts against Western brands like Nike and adidas ([[ADDYY]], [[ADDDF]]), due to the perception that Western governments are spreading propaganda regarding China's Xinjiang region. According to a recent Wall Street Journal article , Nike and adidas continue to face headwinds from calls on Chinese social media to avoid Western brands.

Anta's revenue rose 8.8% last year to about $7.8 billion, hitting a fresh record despite strict Covid-19 curbs in China. The company's success can be attributed to its ability to stay out of geopolitical controversies and incorporate Chinese cultural features and designs in its products, making them more appealing to local consumers.

Furthermore, Anta and other local brands have managed to expand their retail presence and boost sales through e-commerce platforms. Anta currently has more than 9,000 own-branded stores and close to 2,000 Fila stores, with a significant portion of its sales coming from online channels.

In light of these developments, it is clear that Nike is facing increased competition from domestic players like Anta and Li Ning in China. The company will need to reassess its strategies and adapt to the changing preferences of Chinese consumers if it wishes to maintain its leading position in the sportswear market.

Valuation

Note: All financial and valuation data in this section comes from FactSet.

Nike is facing several challenges that are expected to impact its financial performance, with FY 2023 ending in May anticipated to see a decline in earnings per share by 14%. One of the main challenges is the overstocked inventory levels, resulting from supply chain issues, which have led to increased shipping times and costs, as well as disruptions caused by Covid-related store closures.

The company's inventory in North America has surged due to a combination of late deliveries from past seasons and early arrivals of holiday orders. This has led to the availability of multiple seasons' worth of merchandise at once, prompting Nike to take aggressive measures to liquidate its inventory and showcase the newest products in the right locations.

Another challenge Nike faces is the ongoing economic uncertainty, which has accelerated promotional activities across the marketplace, particularly for apparel brands. This added complexity further complicates inventory management and pricing strategies.

Additionally, Nike's performance in Greater China, its third-largest market by revenue, has been negatively affected. Sales in the region have declined due to disruptions caused by Covid lockdowns and other regional factors. These challenges have weighed on the company's overall business performance.

Given the context of these challenges, Nike's shares are currently trading at 32 times forward consensus earnings per share estimates. This places NKE stock in the upper half of its five-year range, which fluctuates between 23 and 44 times. In comparison to the S&P 500, Nike's stock is trading at a 74% premium, compared to its five-year range of a 44% to 104% premium.

We believe this valuation may be considered rich, given the various secular challenges the company is facing, such as those in China, and a deteriorating macroeconomic environment. This may likely put pressure on consumer spending for discretionary goods like Nike's products. In light of these factors, investors should exercise caution and thoroughly assess Nike's ability to overcome these hurdles before making investment decisions.

Conclusion

Nike's Q3 earnings report offers valuable insights into the company's performance and strategies. While Nike's innovative products, direct-to-consumer strategy, and strong brand equity provide support, the company faces significant challenges and increasing competition, particularly in the crucial Chinese market. Investors should closely monitor Nike's performance and assess its ability to overcome these hurdles before making investment decisions. As a result of these concerns, we remain neutral on NKE stock.

For further details see: