STIP - No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - March 7 2019
The BCI at 250.0 is above last week's downward revised 249.6, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 95.0. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.4 is above last week’s downward revised 9.3. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, or BCIg needs to drop to below zero).
Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P 500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession.The BCI was