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QMJ - No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - February 13 2020
Direxion S&P 500 High minus Low Quality ETF
The BCI at 262.1 is up from last week's downward revised 260.4, and for this business cycle is at a new high indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.7 is above last week’s 9.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, or BCIg needs to drop to below zero).
Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P 500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession.The BCI