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VGLT - No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - March 14 2019
Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF
The BCI at 249.2 is below last week's 249.9, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 80.3. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.5 is below last week’s 10.1. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, or BCIg needs to drop to below zero).
Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P 500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession.