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IVOL - No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - September 12 2019
Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge
The BCI at 257.1is up from last week's downward revised 256.6, and remains below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 91.9. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 10.2 is below last week’s downward revised 10.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, or BCIg needs to drop to below zero).
Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P 500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession.