AGZ - No Recession Signaled By iM's Business Cycle Index: Update - January 31 2019
The BCI at 243.9 is below above last week's 244.7, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 57.0. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 5.6 is above last week’s 5.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, or BCIg needs to drop to below zero)
Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P 500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession.The BCI was designed for a