OTLY - Oatly Appears Overvalued At Current Levels

• Oatly may struggle to differentiate in a crowded milk alternatives marketplace.
• Significant capacity expansion creates execution risk and a prospect of oversupply.
• I bake in much of management's rosy assumptions to get -40% downside.
• There are also risks that as dairy alternatives grow, oats perhaps become displaced by other options from hemp to pea milk.
• Ultimately, Oatly is a relatively capital-intensive business with some downside risks and a demanding valuation.

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