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TBT - On The Yield Curve Inversion Signaling Recession
ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury
There has been a tremendous amount of speculation circulating around whether the U.S. is moving into a recession. As many of our readers know, one of the things we like to look at as a forward indicator is yield curve inversion. Here Pension Partners' Charlie Bilello puts out an excellent graphic, which highlights the fact that it's been 13 years since the U.S. yield curve last inverted in regards to the US 10yr vs. the 3-month bill (-0.49):
Yes, we know the text book academic definition is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, yet in