PY - One Week Left In Quarter Q1 '24 S&P 500 Earnings Appear In Good Shape
2024-03-25 07:10:00 ET
Summary
- Readers should reasonably expect solid Q1 ’24 earnings results from the S&P 500 when earnings begin around April 10th, with the financial sector.
- S&P 500 Q4 ’23 earnings were supposed to grow 4% as of early January ’24, and instead wound up +10.1% as of this week.
- As of yet, there aren’t very many red flags around S&P 500 earnings.
S&P 500 data:
- The forward-quarter S&P 500 EPS estimate this week (data is of Wednesday, 3/20 last week, as LSEG did not publish on Friday, 3/22) was $242.89, down from last week’s $243.31, and January 1’s $243.98;
- There wasn’t that much erosion on the forward estimate over the last 90 days, which is typically a plus. FactSet data has noted over the years, that the typical EPS erosion for the quarter next to report is usually 3–5%, while the forward 4-quarter (FFQE) estimate erosion since early January ’24 is lower by less than 1%.
- After last week’s 2.5% rally in the S&P 500, the P/E ratio this week ended at 21.5x versus 21x last week 21x from early January ’24.
- The S&P 500 earnings yield ended at 4.64%, down from 5.19% to start the quarter. The S&P 500 earnings yield fell almost every week in Q1 ’24.
- The Q4 ’23 bottom-up S&P 500 EPS estimate has risen from $54.69 in early January ’24 to $57.11 as of this weekend;
- The Q1 ’24 bottom-up S&P 500 EPS estimate will start the Q1 ’24 around $54.90–$55 per share.