PTON - Peloton: You See It Until You Don't

• Demand for PTON's Connected Fitness (ConFit) products in 2020 was unprecedented in the history of home fitness equipment, due, of course, in part to restrictions related to COVID-19.
• Bulls believe this reflects a permanent paradigm shift in consumer attitudes towards home fitness and that PTON can earn a massive market share from physical gyms.
• Bulls also believe PTON can amass a subscription base to rival that of NFLX or SPOT through a growing library of fitness content.
• I believe the market for home fitness equipment, premium fitness centers (and their substitutes), and premium fitness content are all overvalued by bulls.
• I expect ConFit is unlikely to reach a fraction of its stated 100M subscriber target. PTON must pivot to focus on Digital or it will remain a niche offering.

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