HHC - Pershing Square - Howard Hughes Corp.: Resilient Performance Despite Slowdown Concerns

Summary

• The Howard Hughes Corp.'s advantaged business model of owning MPCs enables it to take a long-term approach to maximizing the value of its portfolio.
• HHC’s MPCs are attractively located in low cost-of-living, low-tax states like Texas and Nevada that are benefiting from significant in-migration.
• HHC’s balance sheet is well insulated from the impact of rising interest rates.
• We believe HHC is extremely well positioned for the current inflationary environment.

The following segment was excerpted from this fund letter .

The Howard Hughes Corporation ( HHC )

HHC’s portfolio of well-located residential land and income-producing commercial assets continues to demonstrate resilient performance despite recent macro concerns of a slowdown in the housing market. The company’s advantaged business model of owning master planned communities (“MPCs”) provides HHC substantial control over the planning and release of land for sale and development, enabling it to take a long-term approach to maximizing the value of its portfolio.

As a result of its outright ownership of thousands of acres of conservatively financed land and a management team that combines superb capital allocation and development skills, the company is much less exposed to the cyclicality of standalone, smaller-scale real estate development companies.

HHC’s MPCs are attractively located in low cost-of-living, low-tax states like Texas and Nevada that are benefiting from significant in-migration. As mortgage rates have increased, the relative affordability and higher quality of life found in Summerlin (Las Vegas, Nevada) and Bridgeland (Houston, Texas), the company’s two MPCs with the substantial majority of remaining land sales, is highly appealing to prospective homebuyers. Although the pace of home sales has moderated from the post-pandemic surge experienced in 2021, housing inventory in HHC’s MPCs has been depleted and is near historical lows.

Homebuilder demand for lots remains strong and the company is experiencing significant growth in pricing due to the supply-demand imbalance, as evidenced by the 25% year-over-year increase in the average price per acre sold this quarter. Likewise, the company is experiencing robust performance across the rest of its portfolio. In its income-producing operating assets, this quarter NOI increased 15% year-over-year driven by the lease-up of new developments and significant increases in rental rates. The pace of condo sales in Ward Village has remained consistently strong due to the unique appeal of the development’s location in Hawaii.

HHC’s balance sheet is well insulated from the impact of rising interest rates. Approximately 83% of the company’s debt is either fixed or swapped to a fixed rate, and the company has limited near-term debt maturities with a substantial portion of its debt maturing in 2026 or later. Unlike traditional developers and homebuilders, the company is not dependent on external capital to fund development. Substantial cash generated from its operating assets, MPC land sales, and condo sales is more than sufficient to self-fund future development opportunities.

While the company has made significant progress in simplifying its business and has a substantial runway for long-term value creation, we continue to believe its current share price is at a deep discount to its intrinsic value. The company has been able to capitalize on this discounted valuation by aggressively repurchasing its shares. Year to date, HHC has repurchased approximately 8% of its outstanding share count, funded by cash flow from operations and non-core asset sales.

We believe HHC is extremely well positioned for the current inflationary environment due to its combination of high-quality real estate assets and a largely fixed-rate liability structure. We expect the company to benefit from substantial land price appreciation and rental income growth in the coming years.

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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