ACTV - Powell Said Payroll Jobs May Be Overstated The Labor Report Likely To Confirm An Imminent Recession
2024-07-03 07:11:21 ET
Summary
- Powell said that payroll jobs could be overstated, suggesting that the Fed is aware that we could be near a recession. The birth/death model added 231K jobs in May.
- The June labor market is likely to confirm that the labor market is weakening, based on the weekly claims data.
- In fact, Sahm Recession Indicator and initial claims data suggest an imminent recession.
- Thus, the S&P 500 is overvalued, facing a recessionary bear market.
Payroll jobs could be overstated
Powell said that payroll jobs "may be a bit overstated" at the June post FOMC meeting press conference....
Powell Said Payroll Jobs May Be Overstated, The Labor Report Likely To Confirm An Imminent Recession