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We are in the middle of a bear market for risk assets, and the key question is trying to figure out what turns this around. My argument is that it is going to be very difficult to read the entrails of market chart patterns, pandemic data, and policy responses to time the bottom. However, if one is not attempting to be a hero forecaster, one key thing to look for is a resumption in corporate bond issuance. (This is the primary credit market; the secondary market is trading of existing bonds among investors. Pretty much