QQEW - Probability Of U.S. Recession Resurges To Nearly 75%

2024-01-30 11:20:00 ET

Summary

• With all the talk of soft landing for the US economy in the media in recent weeks, we half expected to find the odds of a recession for the US economy had continued to recede over the past six weeks.
• After bottoming at 67% in the period from mid-November to mid-December 2023, the odds of a recession have increased to over 74% as of 29 January 2024.
• The Recession Probability Track indicates the probability a recession will someday be officially determined to have begun sometime in the next 12 months.

With all the talk of a " soft landing " for the U.S. economy in the media in recent weeks, we half expected to find the odds of a recession for the U.S. economy had continued to recede over the past six weeks....

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