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In my last post, August 30th, I noted signs of a possible stall in the economy (TSA throughput, very low real yields, high levels of uncertainty). Since then, there are a number of indicators which show continued improvement and even some surprising strength.
Chart #1
Chart #1 shows an index of the prices of non-energy commodities. Prices have now rebounded to where they were prior to the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, and that is a strong indicator that the global economy is rebounding. To be sure, soaring prices could also be due to the