CEIX - Q1 coal results - key earnings drivers and guidance commentary

Both thermal and met coal stocks have posted record gains year to date. Peabody (BTU) is up ~200% this year, while Alpha Met (AMR) has rallied ~150% and CONSOL (CEIX) posted 110% gains ahead of Q1 results. Given wild swings in seaborne and in-basin coal pricing, there are likely to be a few key drivers of share price performance throughout the earnings season:  Production outlooks - The Department of energy is estimating that thermal coal production in the US will rise by 7.4% in 2022; meanwhile the nation's largest producer is forecasting ~4.0% production growth -- to the extent producers are able to guide production above prior forecasts, shares should trade higher. Spot volumes - the majority of US thermal coal is contracted for 2022; however, spot seaborne and in-basin pricing has risen by multiples of prevailing contract prices; anyone able to increase spot sales guidance, whether from inventories or

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Q1 coal results - key earnings drivers and guidance commentary