QVMS - Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP At -0.9% Worse Than Forecast

• The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP came in at -0.9%, an increase from -1.6% for the Q1 Third Estimate.
• A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.29%.
• Eleven of twelve recessions over this timeframe have begun at a lower level of current real YoY GDP.

By Jill Mislinski

The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -0.9% (-0.93% to two decimal places), an increase from -1.6% (-1.57% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 0.5%.

Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:

Real gross domestic product ((GDP)) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 25, 2022. [ Full Release ]

Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.17% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.23%.

Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 16.1% below trend.

A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.29%. Eleven of twelve recessions over this timeframe have begun at a lower level of current real YoY GDP.

In summary, the Q2 GDP Advance Estimate of -0.9% was below forecast but a minor improvement from Q1 GDP.

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Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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