XYLD - Quit While You're Ahead

• The expected return from a roulette spin is negative (-5.26%). An operation that has a negative expected return is not an investment.
• The problem with simple P/E ratios (or even P/E ratios based on year-ahead estimates of forward earnings) is that stocks are not claims on a single year of earnings.
• The challenge for investors is that until and unless we observe an improvement in the uniformity of market internals, or a retreat in market valuations, the only “opportunities” are likely to be purely tactical – involving minor changes in market exposure in response to short-term oversold conditions.

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