IEF - Rate Hikes Off The Table?
It is critical to keep in mind that monetary policy changes impact the real economy at a lag of several quarters. So the tightening cycle that ran from December 2015 to December 2018 will continue to dampen global demand over the next several quarters, even if central banks tighten no further and move to more stimulative efforts in the months ahead.
The speed and spread of global slowing in the last few months have alarmed the consensus so much that the futures market has now moved from pricing a 90% probability of US rate hikes