AFMC - Rates Spark: Limited Potential For Higher Bund Yields

2024-04-09 07:00:00 ET

Summary

• Yields are likely to remain elevated, with the prospects of a 0.3% US core CPI print on Wednesday.
• One of the market’s – and the Fed’s – challenges remains the discrepancy between strength in official data and weakness in other survey data.
• For Bunds, the potential for yields to drift higher alongside USTs is held back by a lack of domestic drivers.

By Benjamin Schroeder | Michiel Tukker | Padhraic Garvey, CFA

Consensus US CPI reading would be no reason to celebrate

10y UST yields are stuck above 4.4% at the start of the week following the strong US payrolls number on Friday. Yields are likely to maintain their elevation with the prospects of a 0.3% core inflation print on Wednesday and the realisation that, if confirmed, the Fed is running out of runway for a June start of its easing cycle....

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