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The risk tone has worsened, but month-end flow as well as supply muddy the picture and we see the risk of a pullback today.
The ECB has provided the market with a clear reaction function to trade off; the key data releases ahead will help US markets get a clearer grasp of the Fed's.
Today will see the release of the manufacturing ISM, which should highlight the supply chain strains that are putting up costs and boosting the chances that inflation stays higher for longer.