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TYNS - Re-Steepening Yield Spreads And CEO Sentiment
Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 1X Shares
In our December 31 client letter, we discussed the re-steepening in the US 10-year and 3-month yield spread that has been underway since 2019, as the US Fed began cutting its policy rates once more.
An inversion of the 10-year - 3-month spread has preceded each of the last eleven US recessions, and in particular, it is the re-steepening after the inversion that marked the onset of recession by an average of 9 months. Here is my partner Cory Venable's chart showing the re-steepening turns in 2001, 2007, and August of 2019.