SFY - Recession Probability: Low (Turning Points For The Week Of 12/23-12/27)
The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction -- to determine if the economy has reached a "Turning Point."
Recession probability is low: the long-leading indicators are solid, corporate earnings are strong, there is little financial market stress, and the Fed is supplying ample liquidity. There continues to be softness in the industrial data, with weak orders flowing through to declining manufacturing hours. However, the leading and coincidental data remains positive.