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QVMS - Recession Risk Is Very Low But Inflation Risk Is High
Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 QVM Multi-factor ETF
This inflation episode is not transitory, it is semi-permanent, and it will last until the Fed decides to tighten monetary policy, an event which still resides uncomfortably far into the future.
Unfortunately, the bond market is still in the early stages of pricing in the likelihood of higher inflation.
Regardless, I continue to believe that the future path of economic growth in the US will be sub-par; that is what I forecast in 2009, and that continues to be my forecast.