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There is a good chance that the debt ceiling will not be addressed and a continuing resolution not enacted by October 1, 2021.
Some are warning that failure to address the debt ceiling could cause the United States to default on its obligations and that could cause a financial market collapse.
It is highly unlikely that markets would collapse because of any temporary delay in paying treasury debt service.
The prospects of failure to address the debt ceiling would tend to make the early Federal Reserve tightening less likely.