YGRN - Renewed Government Lockdowns Dampen Oil Demand Recovery Hopes While Global Inventories Continue To Decline

• COVID cases on the rise in developed countries are causing the market to turn sour on oil demand recovery hopes.
• US has seen COVID case counts steadily rise since early September, but implied US oil demand has reached the highest level since COVID started last week.
• This will be different in Europe, however, as France is likely to announce mandatory stay home orders, while the likes of Germany announces a soft lockdown.
• While the West struggles with COVID, the East (namely China and India) is seeing a big surge in oil demand. China, especially, has already seen its demand rise y-o-y, while India is following closely.
• Finally, sentiment will remain poor as the Western countries discuss renewed lockdowns. But global inventory trends remain on track with the largest onshore storage draw observed in October so far. Satellite data suggests the decrease to be around ~158 million bbls.

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