ACTV - Resilient U.S. Labor Market Blurs Outlook For Rate Cuts

2024-06-10 11:05:00 ET

Summary

• Nonfarm payrolls rose 272,000 in May, rebounding sharply from April’s gain, with a gain that was well above the consensus forecast.
• The Fed funds futures market this morning is pricing in modest odds that the first rate cut will now arrive at the November 7 FOMC meeting.
• The joker in the deck is Wednesday’s consumer price data for May, which will be published several hours ahead of the Fed’s announcement that day.

Ahead of Friday’s payrolls data for May, the crowd was newly confident, again, that the Fed would soon start cutting interest rates. Treasury yields were sliding and expectations were rising that policy easing was near. But the May jobs report flipped the script with news of stronger-than-expected hiring....

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