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ILCB - Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - 2 September 2021
iShares Morningstar U.S. Equity ETF
The expected risk premium for the Global Market (GMI) ticked up in August, reaching an annualized 6.1%, slightly above the previous month’s estimate.
Despite the comparatively high GMI forecast, the current estimate remains well below the index’s realized risk premium for the trailing 10-year period.
No one really knows what risk premia will be in the months and years ahead, which is why relying on forecasting alone (particularly for the short-term future) is asking for trouble.