CEIX - Rolling coal - could Q1 results show accelerating coal exports?

Rail volumes have slowed in recent weeks, and led to transportation stock downgrades, including the downgrades of Canadian Pacific (CP) and Union Pacific (UNP) Friday. However, coal volumes have been a bright spot, with rail car loadings up 10% year-to-date. Interestingly, coal rail car loadings have increased at double the pace of estimated national coal production. Peabody (BTU), the largest producer of coal in the US, guided to 2022 powder river basin production of 91.5mt, up 3.5% from 2021. The company is contracted to sell 90%+ of that volume at $12.40/t, and plans to earn ~$2 on each ton sold. Meanwhile, seaborne thermal coal prices sit above $280/t, suggesting uncontracted volume sold into the export market could earn more than 100x the domestic margin. Interestingly, the two rails serving the powder river basin have seen growth in coal loadings outpace Peabody (BTU) guidance: Year to date, the BNSF railway shipped 13%

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Rolling coal - could Q1 results show accelerating coal exports?