TPLC - Russia And Ukraine: A Macro Playbook For Geopolitical Events

• The tension between Russia and Ukraine is a widely-watched event.
• Investors are worried an escalation of tensions would be a negative economic shock.
• You should not try and guess the outcome of political events, but rather position for the underlying cyclical trends.
• A shock during a downturn = recession risk. A shock during an upturn = no recession risk.
• The economy is in a cyclical downturn, so political "shocks" can create recession risk.

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