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So much will be written this weekend about the FOMC meeting Wednesday, but here is the snapshot of the CME fed funds future contract probabilities as of Friday, July 26th, 2019.
Sure looks like we will get a 25 bp reduction on Wednesday, July 31, at 1:00 pm.
The money markets have already discounted a 50 basis point move: here is where key Treasury yields closed Friday, July 26th, 2019:
3-month: 2.12%
6-month: 2.10%
1-year: 2.00%
2-year: 1.86%
The 2-year Treasury isn't a money market instrument but readers can see the inversion in the short