XLE - S&P 500 Headed To 4000+ In 2020 (Watch Out After) International Equities European Banks And U.S. Energy To Outperform
THE PROCESS
A quick note on process before diving into the analysis. My benchmark - and I believe everyone's benchmark whether they admit it or not - is the S&P 500 (SPX), so my process starts with developing a duration-agnostic outlook for the SPX. (By duration-agnostic I mean conditions-dependent. So for simple hypothetical example, for as long as the SPX is trading below its 200-day moving average it can be expected to generate below-average annualized returns.)
The SPX outlook is developed using a weight-of-the-evidence mosaic of indicator evidence that looks at the level and rate-of-change