SPEU - Same 3 Drivers In The Week Ahead But Changing Tones
Three themes have dominated the investment climate: US-China tensions, Brexit, and the policy response to the disinflationary forces. None have been resolved, which contributes to the uncertainty for businesses, households, and investors. However, the negativity that has prevailed is receding a little. It begins with the most substantive progress on Brexit in months, but also entails a possible new tariff truce between the US and China. Indeed, we irreverently suggested that the more President Trump denied interest in an interim agreement with China, the more likely it was. The disinflationary forces remain but seem to