GAZB - September 2020: Natural Gas Supply-Demand Balance Overview And Forecast

• Overall, the year-over-year average daily rate of consumption of dry natural gas in June 2020 increased in two of the four consuming sectors, and it decreased in the other two.
• Residential deliveries were the highest for the month since 2009. Commercial deliveries were the lowest for the month since 2012.
• Despite this year-to-year decrease, the average daily rate of natural gas exports was the second highest for the month since EIA began tracking monthly exports in 1973.
• Overall, we believe that over the next three months (September to November), total supply will be declining faster than total demand (on an annualized basis), ensuring that total supply-demand balance will be tighter relative to 2019.
• Annual storage "surplus" is currently projected to shrink by -184 bcf by October 23. Storage "surplus" vs. 5-year average is projected to shrink by -83 bcf over the same period.

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