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While scant attention is currently being given to the shape of the Treasury yield curve, I wondered what the future would hold. Certainly, there are a lot of other pressing issues making headlines, but what happens the next time the curve inverts - will it still be viewed as having the same predictive value as we have seen in the past?
Depending on the maturities one examines, the Treasury yield curve actually inverted as far back as last March, utilizing the 3-month/10-year measure. My preferred gauge, the 2-year/10-year differential, was historically flat