AAP - Should you buy Advance Auto Parts stock on post-earnings decline?

2023-11-16 13:07:07 ET

Advance Auto Parts Inc (NYSE: AAP) has lost an alarming 65% already over the past nine months but a Bank of America analyst says the free fall may not be over just yet.

Advance Auto Parts stock could tank another 20%

The automotive parts provider came in shy of earnings estimates for its third financial quarter this week and slightly lowered its sales guidance for the full year as well.

On the plus side, though, Shane O’Kelly – its Chief Executive announced a cost cut initiative aimed at saving $150 million (at least) on an annualised basis.

Still, Elizabeth Suzuki of BofA Securities downgraded Advance Auto Parts stock today to “underperform” and lowered her price objective to $43 that suggests another 20% downside from here.

She turned dovish on AAP even though it currently pays a dividend yield of 1.88%.

Suzuki expects continued pressure on free cash flow

Suzuki recommends against owning Advance Auto Parts stock because she expects the aforementioned “transformation to be messy”.

The Bank of America analyst does not expect the retailer’s free cash flow to be relieved of pressure over the next twelve months at least.

On Wednesday, CEO O’Kelly also announced plans of unloading the Canadian business and Worldpac distribution unit. Still, Elizabeth Suzuki said in a research note this morning:

There is a lot of wood to chop before the stock looks attractive. The divestiture is expected to be initially dilutive to net income due to dissynergies and tax expenses.

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