SCGLF - Societe Generale: Sum Of The Parts And Fading Risks Point To A Strong H2 2022

• Strong operating performance, low cost of risk and exceptional factors made 2021 the best year ever for Societe Generale.
• RoTE of 9.2% for Q4 was below the 10.2% achieved for the full year. I expect further deterioration in 2022 given expected cost of risk at below 30 bps (2021 13bps).
• Dividend for 2021 is proposed at 1.65 EUR/share. A 915M EUR buyback should boost tangible book by around 1 EUR/share to 62.2 EUR/share.
• Risks include Russia, French Elections (24 April presidential, 19 June Parliamentary) and buyback subject to approvals at the annual shareholders meeting (17 May).
• Near term catalyst could be release of financial targets for 2024-2025 tentatively anticipated for Q1 2022.

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