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In the past few years, one argument we have heard from many deflationists is that since the inflation spiked in the late 1970s, core CPI has constantly been making lower highs – from 13.6% in June 1980 to 2.4% in the last cycle – which suggest that we are set to reach new lows in the coming months. Falling inflation would therefore deprive yields from rising and as a response, the Fed will continuously have to cut its target rate down to zero in order to offset the bearish trend in prices. Figure 1 shows