EZA - South Africa's Endgame - Longer And More Painful Now?

• High commodity prices, benign global liquidity, and depressed imports result in large current account surplus.
• The large current account surplus will support the currency at current levels over the near term.
• However, Dutch disease, policy misalignments, and evolving energy transition dynamics point to continued economic stagnation and high unemployment.
• Ultimately, current dynamics remain unsustainable and point to significant longer-term risks for the currency.

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