GENI - Sports betting investors eye DraftKings M&A and Fanatics IPO

2023-06-17 09:53:49 ET

The sports betting sector was rattled during the week when powerhouse DraftKings ( NASDAQ: DKNG ) jumped in with a $195M offer to buy the U.S. assets of PointsBet ( OTCQX:PBTHF ) to mark a 30% premium to an earlier bid from Fanatics ( FANA ).

If DraftKings ( DKNG ) lands regulatory approvals and takes the deal to the finish line, it will completely upend the sports betting expansion effort of Fanatics in the 15 states where PointsBet ( OTCQX:PBTHF ) operates. For DraftKings, the addition of PointsBet ( OTCQX:PBTHF ) brings with it some unique technology through licensing, including the company's "points betting" product and Banach risk and trading platform.

Crucially, DraftKings ( DKNG ) management expects the transaction to increase its adjusted EBITDA potential in 2025 and not impact the expectations of achieving positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024.

On Wall Street, Wells Fargo analyst Daniel Politzer was positive on the acquisition and estimated synergies of $30M to $40M in 2025 from the deal - comprised of labor efficiencies, lower combined marketing, and revenue uplift via an improved product. Morgan Stanley also saw the strategic rationale for the deal. Analyst Stephen Grambling said that when combined with slowing a competitors launch, the transaction appears to be playing offense with limited impact to the balance sheet. Jefferies analyst David Katz believes the strategic and financial logic is clear from DKNG's perspective, although the firm considers the realistic possibility that Fanatics ( FANA ) could come back into the fray with a higher bid. Interestingly, Jefferies believes the event supports the expectation for accelerating M&A activity in the sector. Morgan Stanley also saw the strategic rationale for the deal.

The DraftKings ( DKNG )-PointsBet ( OTCQX:PBTHF ) deal was announced just as more data came in showing that Q2 sports betting trends are strong, despite some anxiety consumers would be pulling back. Notably, U.S. sports betting handle has come in ahead of expectations for April and May for the states that have reported and Q2 gross gaming revenue estimates have been pushed up to over $2B. Analysts pointed out that profitability has benefited from more surgical spending across the sector on promotions, reduced overall marketing costs, and a shift toward more efficient national advertising. Macquarie analyst Chad Benyon said operators such as Caesars Entertainment ( CZR ), MGM Resorts ( MGM ), Rush Street Interactive ( RSI ), Bally's ( BALY ) and Penn Entertainment ( PENN ) are all seeing better hold rates amid the more rationale competitive backdrop.

Looking ahead, Fanatics ( FANA ) appears to be on track for an IPO this year, which could throw a bright spotlight on other sports betting stocks. The company held its second investor event during the week with the reps from the NBA Players Association and Las Vegas Raiders minority owner Tom Brady in attendance. The IPO market in general got a huge shot of adrenaline when Cava's ( CAVA ) public debut saw shares rise more than 100% over their offering price. Investors bid up Cava to trade with a higher market cap than Wendy's ( WEN ), Shake Shack ( SHAK ), and Papa John's ( PZZA ) on its first day of action. Some analysts think Fanatics has the broad appeal to also generate some IPO buzz.

Sports betting/iGaming plays: FanDuel/Flutter Entertainment ( OTCPK:PDYPY ), Caesars Entertainment ( CZR ), Penn National Gaming ( PENN ), Wynn Resorts ( WYNN ), MGM Resorts ( MGM ), Entain ( OTCPK:GMVHF ), GAN ( GAN ), fuboTV ( FUBO ), Churchill Downs ( CHDN ), International Game Technology ( IGT ), Skillz ( SKLZ ), Bally's ( BALY ), Golden Matrix Group ( GMGI ), Bragg Gaming Group ( BRAG ), Elys Game Technology ( ELYS ), Paysafe ( PSFE ), Playtech ( OTCPK:PYTCF ), Esports Entertainment ( GMBL ), Sportradar ( SRAD ), Genius Sports ( GENI ), Gambling.com ( GAMB ) and Boyd Gaming ( BYD ).

More on sports betting and casino stocks:

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• The push for major league baseball in Las Vegas takes another step forward
• MGM Resorts: A Clear Buy Given The Macau Surge Plus All Engines Firing At Once
• Seeking Alpha Quant Ratings across the casino sector

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