IWM - SPY: Black Swan Hiding In Plain Sight

2024-01-24 01:13:11 ET

Summary

• The global supply chain is facing a potential return to rising inflation due to current events in the shipping sector.
• Attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Houthi militants are causing significant disruptions to vessel capacity and increasing transportation costs.
• The dynamics on the capital markets that we have been observing since 2H 2023 seem illogical to me today, given the very high probability of inflation coming back.
• At the very least, the allocation of your portfolio should not lead to an unfavorable overweighting of equities, in my opinion.
• I really hope that we can avoid this black swan.

Instead Of An Investment Thesis

I started my journey as an analyst at Seeking Alpha in 2021, with a relatively modest background in finance, but good experience in logistics and data analytics. So at some point, I began to specialize in analyzing companies from the shipping sector while studying other industries to broaden my research horizons....

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